Are the Orioles Doomed?
The Orioles could be the subject of a book -- one that would delve into the culture of a team that is stuck in a major rut. The day-to-day results only demonstrate a small part of the story -- but the big picture must examine whether there is really an escape.
You could talk about players who the Birds targeted but couldn't sign (e.g. Barry Zito and Paul Konerko); players that the O's did sign that turned out to be a bust (Sammy Sosa and Raffy Palmeiro, part II); players the O's couldn't keep when free agency arrived (Mike Mussina and B.J. Ryan); or even players the O's signed or drafted that turned out well (Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard).
But there is only one question that needs to be examined: how can the Orioles start winning again?
The Past
To start answering that question, one must examine why the team continues to lose. And while it's easy to blame Peter G. Angelos (and we'll get back to him), there is plenty of proof that the team has won under current ownership and lost before Angelos arrived in Charm City.
You could talk about players who the Birds targeted but couldn't sign (e.g. Barry Zito and Paul Konerko); players that the O's did sign that turned out to be a bust (Sammy Sosa and Raffy Palmeiro, part II); players the O's couldn't keep when free agency arrived (Mike Mussina and B.J. Ryan); or even players the O's signed or drafted that turned out well (Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard).
But there is only one question that needs to be examined: how can the Orioles start winning again?
The Past
To start answering that question, one must examine why the team continues to lose. And while it's easy to blame Peter G. Angelos (and we'll get back to him), there is plenty of proof that the team has won under current ownership and lost before Angelos arrived in Charm City.
From 1968-1985 (18 seasons), the Orioles boasted a winning season every year. But the sad reality is that since then, the Birds only have six seasons above .500. From 1954-68, the Orioles enjoyed six winning seasons and one .500 season. Therefore, as a franchise, the Orioles only have boasted 30 winning seasons and one .500 season in 52 seasons (not including the current one), but 18 of them came consecutively.
By comparison, the Kansas City Royals have enjoyed 18 winning seasons in 37 years of existence, the Pirates (who were founded in 1882) have 18 winning seasons since 1954, the Cubs (founded in 1874) only have 16 winning seasons in the last 52, the Brewers 10 since their 1969 founding, the Blue Jays 16 since their 1977 creation, and the Indians (founded in 1901) 21 since 1954.
If it makes you feel better, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays never have boasted a winning season since entering the league in 1998, and the Colorado Rockies have only enjoyed four since their 1993 launch. The Florida Marlins only has four winning seasons since they entered the league in 1993, but they can claim two World Series titles.
Current Climate
Angelos controls the purse strings and personnel decisions, and that does not bode well for turning the ship around. He's not selling any time soon -- another ominous sign. The front office (or what passes for one) and manager continue to be Friends of Peter, while the players must pass his scrutiny. So the Orioles never really will take a chance on a player that might have a lot of potential but come with some uncertainties.
They want a sure thing -- and that player doesn't exist. That's why they didn't pursue Frank Thomas before the 2006 season, and all he did was help the A's win the division by hitting .270 with 39 home runs and 114 RBIs.
The Future
However, there are three things that Angelos can do to start the recovery:
1. Hire a real GM and cede control. During the O's most recent winning stretch (1996-97), the Orioles had a GM (Pat Gillick) who was able to attract players in their prime -- thus producing a winner. The current team of Jim Duquette and Mike Flanagan isn't getting it done -- and they need to be replaced.
2. Hire a manager that will hold players responsible. Sam Perlozzo is a great guy. He's been loyal to the organization and deserved the chance to be the skipper. But it's clear that he doesn't have what it takes to win in Baltimore. They need somebody who will light a fire under the team and, given the right players, produce a winner.
We pause for a quick trivia question: Who is the most successful manager in franchise history (and the only Hall of Famer)? It's no coincidence that the answer is Earl Weaver -- who was the epitome of fiery and wasn't afraid to go against the numbers and trust his gut. Weaver led the Orioles to the ALCS six times (1969-1971, 1973, 1974, and 1979) and the World Series four times (1969-71, 1979). He led the O's to the 1970 World Series title, six A.L. East titles, and five 100-win seasons. There was nothing calm about the Earl of Baltimore.
The Orioles need that kind of manager, and Perlozzo doesn't fit the profile. The best candidate (who is currently unemployed) is Joe Girardi, and if he doesn't get the Yankees job, the Orioles must bring him to Charm City. I'm sure there are others, but Girardi will give the Birds the best shot. (Don't forget that fiery Davey Johnson managed the Birds in 1996-97.)
3. Let the new management structure pick the best players for the job. This is where it gets dicey. For years, the Orioles have stuck with the safe route. They have landed a few stars, but rarely did they beat out other teams for anybody (the one exception was Tejada). The team must move past that pattern and not be afraid to trade/release players that either are past their prime or will not help the team win now. Therefore, the only players on the roster that are untouchable are Erik Bedard, Chris Ray, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, Ramon Hernandez, and Tejada.
Obviously, they're not going to dump the other 19 members off the roster, but they have to move beyond being safe. Trade Cabrera or Loewen for a proven starter. Trade Mora or Baez at the deadline for a hidden gem (if their scouting department can find one). Take a chance on somebody who might do what Thomas did for the A's last season.
The Orioles aren't going to reverse 52 years of history in one winter. But if they don't start thinking about it now, they'll repeat 22 years of futility instead of moving back towards the 30 years of success.
Therefore, the Orioles' so-called winning tradition was mostly comprised of an amazing 18-year stretch. Other than that, they only have 12 winning seasons in 34 years-- which isn't that impressive.
By comparison, the Kansas City Royals have enjoyed 18 winning seasons in 37 years of existence, the Pirates (who were founded in 1882) have 18 winning seasons since 1954, the Cubs (founded in 1874) only have 16 winning seasons in the last 52, the Brewers 10 since their 1969 founding, the Blue Jays 16 since their 1977 creation, and the Indians (founded in 1901) 21 since 1954.
If it makes you feel better, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays never have boasted a winning season since entering the league in 1998, and the Colorado Rockies have only enjoyed four since their 1993 launch. The Florida Marlins only has four winning seasons since they entered the league in 1993, but they can claim two World Series titles.
Current Climate
Angelos controls the purse strings and personnel decisions, and that does not bode well for turning the ship around. He's not selling any time soon -- another ominous sign. The front office (or what passes for one) and manager continue to be Friends of Peter, while the players must pass his scrutiny. So the Orioles never really will take a chance on a player that might have a lot of potential but come with some uncertainties.
They want a sure thing -- and that player doesn't exist. That's why they didn't pursue Frank Thomas before the 2006 season, and all he did was help the A's win the division by hitting .270 with 39 home runs and 114 RBIs.
The O's front office loves talking big, but when it's all said and done, they're not capable of pulling off deals that will make them a consistent winner.
The Future
However, there are three things that Angelos can do to start the recovery:
1. Hire a real GM and cede control. During the O's most recent winning stretch (1996-97), the Orioles had a GM (Pat Gillick) who was able to attract players in their prime -- thus producing a winner. The current team of Jim Duquette and Mike Flanagan isn't getting it done -- and they need to be replaced.
2. Hire a manager that will hold players responsible. Sam Perlozzo is a great guy. He's been loyal to the organization and deserved the chance to be the skipper. But it's clear that he doesn't have what it takes to win in Baltimore. They need somebody who will light a fire under the team and, given the right players, produce a winner.
We pause for a quick trivia question: Who is the most successful manager in franchise history (and the only Hall of Famer)? It's no coincidence that the answer is Earl Weaver -- who was the epitome of fiery and wasn't afraid to go against the numbers and trust his gut. Weaver led the Orioles to the ALCS six times (1969-1971, 1973, 1974, and 1979) and the World Series four times (1969-71, 1979). He led the O's to the 1970 World Series title, six A.L. East titles, and five 100-win seasons. There was nothing calm about the Earl of Baltimore.
The Orioles need that kind of manager, and Perlozzo doesn't fit the profile. The best candidate (who is currently unemployed) is Joe Girardi, and if he doesn't get the Yankees job, the Orioles must bring him to Charm City. I'm sure there are others, but Girardi will give the Birds the best shot. (Don't forget that fiery Davey Johnson managed the Birds in 1996-97.)
3. Let the new management structure pick the best players for the job. This is where it gets dicey. For years, the Orioles have stuck with the safe route. They have landed a few stars, but rarely did they beat out other teams for anybody (the one exception was Tejada). The team must move past that pattern and not be afraid to trade/release players that either are past their prime or will not help the team win now. Therefore, the only players on the roster that are untouchable are Erik Bedard, Chris Ray, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, Ramon Hernandez, and Tejada.
Obviously, they're not going to dump the other 19 members off the roster, but they have to move beyond being safe. Trade Cabrera or Loewen for a proven starter. Trade Mora or Baez at the deadline for a hidden gem (if their scouting department can find one). Take a chance on somebody who might do what Thomas did for the A's last season.
The Orioles aren't going to reverse 52 years of history in one winter. But if they don't start thinking about it now, they'll repeat 22 years of futility instead of moving back towards the 30 years of success.
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